2006 Hurricane Season Bows Out Quietly
CNN.net
POSTED: 11:31 a.m. EST, November
30, 2006
Story Highlights
• 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes in 2006
• No U.S. hurricane landfall for first time since 2001
• 2006 quiet after 2004, 2005, but still at historical average
• El Nino helped prevent storms, forecasters say
MIAMI,
Florida (CNN) -- Defying predictions, the 2006
Atlantic hurricane season ended with a whimper rather than a
bang on Thursday, without a single hurricane hitting U.S.
shores.
Only three
tropical storms made landfall, a welcome relief from the
previous two years, when nearly a dozen hurricanes battered the
country.
The sense of
quiet was relative. Although 2006 might have seemed tame
compared with the devastation of 2004 and 2005, the season's
totals -- nine named storms, five hurricanes, two of them major
-- were actually right at the historical average for the past
150 years, according to data from the National Hurricane Center.
This
year's tropical activity fell well short of predictions made at
the beginning of the season that called for an above-average
number of storms -- although not as many as last year's
record-shattering season of 28 named storms.
The
forecasters' crystal balls were made cloudy by the unexpected
formation of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in
midsummer, weather experts said. Even the most sophisticated
computer models couldn't see El Nino coming to dampen tropical
activity in the Atlantic.
"It turns out
that El Nino developed more rapidly than expected, and the
atmosphere responded quickly," said Gerry Bell of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction
Center. "So that really helped to offset the overall favorable
conditions [for hurricanes] that we've had in place for more
than the last decade."
An El Nino
happens when waters warm in the Pacific, affecting the
atmosphere and increasing westerly winds. As a result, Atlantic
hurricanes are weakened and pushed away from the U.S. East
Coast.
Four of this
season's five hurricanes -- Florence, Gordon, Helene and Isaac
-- started to march westward across the Atlantic toward the
United States, only to be turned northward and sent out to sea
to dissipate.
Before the
season began in June, the hurricane center predicted 13 to 16
named storms, with eight to 10 hurricanes, four to six of which
could become major. In August, after the season got off to a
slow start, that forecast was tweaked to 12 to 15 named storms,
seven to nine hurricanes and three or four major hurricanes.
"This year, our
August forecast was the first August forecast ever to
over-forecast the activity," Bell said. "So this is not a common
thing."
The U.S.
mainland got through the entire seasons of 2001 and 2000 without
a hurricane making landfall. That isn't common. During the past
100 seasons, Americans have lucked out and avoided a hurricane
landfall just 18 times, according to National Hurricane Center
data.
This year was
also unusual because no tropical systems formed at all in
October. That is the first time that has happened since 1994,
according to the hurricane center.
Only three
tropical systems affected the United States this year: Tropical
Storm Alberto came ashore in Florida's Big Bend region in June,
then moved north through Georgia and South Carolina; Tropical
Storm Beryl brushed Cape Cod in July; and Tropical Storm Ernesto
made landfalls in southern Florida on August 30 and along the
North Carolina coast two days later.
Only Alberto
hit the Gulf of Mexico this year, which was welcome news for
residents of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast still trying to
recover from 2005's one-two punch from hurricanes Katrina and
Rita.
The most
powerful hurricanes this year were Helene, whose maximum
sustained winds reached 125 mph, and Gordon, with winds reaching
120 mph. Both were classified as Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson
scale, which rates the power of storms from Category 1 to
Category 5.
By contrast, in
2005, three storms reached Category 5 -- Katrina, Rita and
Wilma, the most intense hurricane ever recorded -- and two
others reached Category 4.
But despite
this year's respite, forecasters are quick to point out that
hurricane activity moves in cycles and the Atlantic basin
remains in a very active area that could last another 20 years.
From 1995 to
2005, the yearly average has been 15 named storms and eight
hurricanes, four of them major -- substantially higher than what
has been seen historically and during 2006.
CNN's
Rob Marciano contributed to this report.
